Refinance Rate Trends & Forecast
Here is the 2026 view on refinance rate trends & forecast — what moves them and when to lock.
What to know
Refinance rates track the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage-bond market, which respond to inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic data. Rather than trying to predict the bottom, set a target rate and use alerts to act when pricing hits it. Remember that refinancing again later is always an option if rates fall further.
What affects your refinance rate
- Your credit score and loan-to-value
- Loan term (15-year prices below 30-year)
- Rate-and-term vs cash-out (cash-out prices higher)
- Discount points you choose to buy
- The bond market and Fed policy — and lender margins, so compare quotes
Example payment by rate
| Rate | P&I on a $300,000 loan (30-yr) |
|---|---|
| 5.25% | $1,657 |
| 5.50% | $1,703 |
| 5.75% | $1,751 |
| 6.00% | $1,799 |
| 6.25% | $1,847 |
| 6.50% | $1,896 |
| 6.75% | $1,946 |
Rates move daily. Join the free Refi Rate Guide alerts so you can lock when rates clear your break-even.
Refinance Alerts, Free to Your Inbox
Join the free Refi Rate Guide alert list — we watch rates, cash-out rules, and new programs so you do not have to.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Refinance Rate Trends & Forecast — the quick answer?
- Refinance rates track the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage-bond market, which respond to inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic data. Rather than trying to predict the bottom, set a target rate and use alerts to act when pricing hits it. Remember that refinancing again later is always an option if rates fall further.
- Are refinance rates higher than purchase rates?
- Rate-and-term refinance rates are usually similar to purchase rates; cash-out refinances price a bit higher because they are riskier for the lender.